First American Sees 1.7m in Shadow Inventory

First American estimated that the inventory not yet on the market constituted a 3.3-month supply at the end of the third quarter, up from 2.4 months a year earlier. The number of homes for sale was 3.8 million, a 7.8-month supply at the current sales pace, First American said. That’s down from 4.7 million, or a 10.1-month supply, a year earlier.

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This doesn’t include the amount of homes falling into the shadow inventory of foreclosure. Some data providers like First American CoreLogic speculate that number could be as high as 1.7m as the roadblocks of the government incentive programs and moratoriums clog the foreclosure pipeline.

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The Royal Bank of Scotland found 2.7m, and First American CoreLogic counted 1.7m. S&P estimates the inventory to equal a 33-month supply of homes. Analysts added the estimate is actually conservative, as they did not assume homes not showing signs of distress would default and push the overhang of supply even further.

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This new estimate from First American is up from 1.1m from a year ago. First American CoreLogic estimates a 1.7m pending supply of homes was ready to hit the market as of September 2009.

(MORE: Whatever Happened to the Big, Bad “Shadow Inventory” of Homes. hard at work trying to find space for all of them. Adapted from The End of the Suburbs: Where the American Dream is Moving by.